Source
Lenny's Podcast: Product | Career | Growth — How I built a 1M+ subscriber newsletter and top 10 tech podcast | Lenny Rachitsky (March 12, 2026) ·
at 7:25 ▸ ·
at 9:58 ▸
When this applies
when deciding whether to commit further resources to any recurring effort (a product, a habit, a content series) that has already run for a while
The takeaway
Use past duration of sustained commitment as a forward-looking proxy for how much longer you can sustain it, and use that as a trigger point to escalate investment.
Why it works
If you have sustained an activity consistently for a given duration without quitting, the behavioral and motivational factors that kept it alive are likely still present, making continuation for a similar further duration probable.
One level up
Let observed track record, not projected plans, be the evidence that justifies escalating commitment.
Where it stops holding
This stops working when the conditions that enabled past persistence (e.g., external circumstances, energy levels, market interest) are about to change structurally, making past duration a poor predictor of future duration.
Detail
rule: If you've sustained something consistently for X time, you can reasonably expect to sustain it for roughly X more time — use that as permission to invest further.
threshold: nine months of weekly publishing led him to conclude he could do another year
rationale: The Lindy effect: survival duration predicts future survival duration.
In their words
There's this Lindy effect. I don't know if you know this, but there's this concept of something being Lindy, which is as long as it's been going for, it will most likely last at least that long in the future.