Source
OpenAI Podcast — Episode 9 - ChatGPT Atlas and the next era of web browsing (November 13, 2025) ·
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When this applies
when deciding whether to commit to a new product built on a fast-improving underlying technology
The takeaway
Decide to build on a rapidly improving capability by extrapolating its trend line, not by judging its present-day limitations.
Why it works
Looking at the rate of improvement over time (not just the current state) lets you project forward and justify investing before the technology is 'finished', because by the time it ships the trajectory will have carried it further.
One level up
Timing big bets around technology adoption curves rewards those who project the slope rather than react to the snapshot.
Where it stops holding
This stops working when the underlying technology's improvement curve stalls or plateaus unexpectedly, making the extrapolation wrong.
In their words
you see the slope of innovation there and the pace of improvement. If you look back at the beginning of the year when Operator first came out, for example, and it sort of like hints at some of the potential. And now you fast forward to where Atlas is with Agent and how much faster it is, how much more capable it is. Just look at that slope and you start to project what's it going to look like next year, five years out, et cetera.