Source
Lenny's Podcast: Product | Career | Growth — Head of Claude Code: What happens after coding is solved | Boris Cherny (February 19, 2026) ·
at 32:39 ▸ ·
at 38:23 ▸
When this applies
when trying to forecast the impact of a technology that democratizes a previously scarce, specialized skill
The takeaway
When facing an unprecedented technological shift, search history for a prior case where a similarly scarce, specialized skill became cheap and widely accessible, and reason from how that shift unfolded (speed of change, disruption, eventual unlocking of new capability).
Why it works
By finding a prior technology that also collapsed the cost of a scarce specialized skill (scribal literacy -> printed literacy), one can borrow its pattern — rapid volume increase, slow but eventual mass skill diffusion, large unforeseen downstream effects (the Renaissance) — as a scaffold for reasoning about an otherwise unprecedented present situation.
One level up
Novel situations are best understood by finding the closest structural analog in history, not by reasoning from scratch.
Where it stops holding
This stops working when the analogy is superficial and the actual causal mechanisms differ enough that the borrowed pattern (e.g., timelines, winners/losers) misleads rather than informs.
Detail
approach: Identify a historical technology that also made a scarce specialized skill cheap/common; study how fast volume changed, how slowly skill diffusion followed despite falling cost, and what new possibilities emerged afterward that were unimaginable beforehand.
signals:- A previously rare skill (literacy, coding) concentrated in a small professional class (scribes, engineers).
- A technology that collapses the cost of producing the skill's output (printing press, Claude Code) by orders of magnitude almost immediately.
- A slower, multi-decade lag before mass adoption/skill diffusion follows the cost collapse.
- The admission that nobody at the time of the shift can predict exactly what gets unlocked next.
rationale: Printed material volume exceeded 1000 years of prior output within 50 years post-Gutenberg, printing cost fell ~100x, and literacy took ~200 years to reach ~70% globally — illustrating both fast supply-side change and slow adoption-side change.
In their words
I think the thing that's come closest for me is the printing press.