Source
When this applies
when any new category of spend (new technology, new vendor type) emerges faster than existing budgeting/governance processes can track it
The takeaway
When a new cost category with real marginal costs emerges, build attribution (who spent it, on what, with what return) early, rather than waiting for it to become a conventional budget line.
Why it works
A spend category with real marginal cost (unlike flat-fee software) and no established budget process is invisible until it's already overrun; building tracking/attribution (by purpose, owner, ROI) before the category matures prevents waste and informs allocation decisions.
One level up
Financial control systems must be built ahead of the spend curve for genuinely new cost categories, because by the time a category is 'normal,' the waste has already compounded.
Where it stops holding
This stops working when the new spend category is small enough that instrumenting it costs more than the waste it would catch.
Detail
procedure:- Recognize the new spend category (AI token spend) has real marginal costs unlike typical software.
- Track who spent, on what (OpEx vs R&D), and what the return was.
- Monitor model substitution opportunities — about six months after a frontier model launches, an open-weight model often matches it at roughly 1/100th cost.
- Build routing/wrapping systems to send tasks to the cheapest adequate model rather than always using the frontier model.
benchmarks: {"anthropic_run_rate":"over $50B/year run rate, cited as rumor","labs_combined_projection":"labs projected to pass $300B/year, ~1% of US GDP","model_cost_decay":"~6 months after a frontier model, an open-weight model of similar quality may cost ~1/100th"}
rationale: No company budgeted for this type of spend five years ago; building the control layer now captures the gap before it becomes standardized.
In their words
I think there's going to be a third mega category created around how do we manage knowledge work that will be done on behalf of organizations and done through these tokens.