Source
The Knowledge Project — The Mindset Behind Building a Great Little Business | Brad Jacobs (August 4, 2026) ·
at 24:41 ▸
When this applies
when you have high conviction in a move that the market/analysts will initially misread as inconsistent with your stated strategy
The takeaway
Be willing to absorb short-term market/analyst disapproval if you have high conviction backed by concrete, analyzable value-creation levers.
Why it works
Markets price in consistency with prior narrative, not fundamental value; if you have genuine insight into an undervalued, fixable asset, short-term market punishment is a cost, not evidence you are wrong.
One level up
Courage to improvise against a rigid plan is required to capture opportunities a rigid plan would have excluded.
Where it stops holding
This stops working when the conviction is not backed by real analysis (vanity pivots), or when the market disapproval reflects a genuine flaw rather than mere narrative mismatch.
Detail
situation: XPO was an asset-light brokerage business; Conway was a fixed-cost, asset-heavy trucking company with a messy, overlapping org structure, available cheaply.
decision: Jacobs pivoted strategy to buy Conway despite market disapproval of the inconsistency with prior strategy, trusting his read of fixable inefficiency.
outcome: Market punished the stock short-term ('in the doghouse'), but over time Conway's value grew roughly 15-20x through restructuring, divestitures, and integration into XPO/GXO/RXO.
lesson: A pivot that looks inconsistent to the market can still be the highest-conviction, highest-return move if backed by real analysis of fixable inefficiency.
In their words
assuming you're right, and I know you have high conviction and you deliver the numbers, over time, you're going to be a hero here.