Source
The Knowledge Project — Make Better Decisions by Fixing Yourself First (August 18, 2026) ·
at 41:35 ▸
When this applies
when a new accessible tool threatens to make a previously specialized craft available to everyone, raising fears it will eliminate professional opportunities in that craft
The takeaway
When tools democratize access to a previously elite craft, expect the overall market and professional opportunity in that craft to expand, by analogy to prior democratizations (e.g., digital photography/imagery vs. oil painting) — stated as a belief/analogy, not a proven law.
Why it works
Lowering the barrier to entry for a creative medium increases the total population engaging with it, which historically grows (rather than shrinks) the market for professional-level work in that medium, by analogy to digital imagery tools expanding demand for visual professionals despite democratizing basic image creation.
One level up
Analogies from past technology democratizations can inform (but not guarantee) predictions about new democratizations having similar non-obvious expansionary effects.
Where it stops holding
This stops working when the new medium is a substitute good rather than a complement (fully replacing rather than expanding demand for professional work), or when the analogy to a prior democratization doesn't hold due to different market dynamics.
Detail
situation: AI and digital tools are making game/content creation accessible to far more people, not just specialized creators.
decision: Framed as an open question/belief rather than a company decision.
outcome: Predicted: the creator job market in gaming will grow, not shrink, mirroring how digital imagery tools grew (not shrank) the visual professional job market despite democratizing basic image creation.
lesson: Rather than digital technology reducing the job market for oil painters, it's probably increased the job market — offered as an analogy-based prediction for gaming.
In their words
And in a way, rather than a digital technology like reducing the job market for oil painters, it's probably increased the job market. There's a lot more people doing digital imagery.