Source
When this applies
when a business has correctly identified that each new user/customer acquired is worth dramatically more over their lifetime than current-period metrics suggest
The takeaway
If you have a credible, tested belief that user lifetime value will keep rising steeply, it can be correct to overpay for distribution/acquisition by amounts that look irrational on a trailing basis, forcing competitors who can't match the spend to concede the market.
Why it works
Because a Toolbar-installed user generated roughly 7x more searches and ARPU was expected to keep rising sharply, Google could spend far more than looked 'rational' per acquisition today, because the true payback period and lifetime value justified it, and being private shielded them from public-market scrutiny of short-term margin hits.
One level up
Being privately held with no need to report consistent quarterly metrics can be a structural advantage for making bold, long-horizon capital allocation decisions that public competitors cannot match.
Where it stops holding
This stops working when the lifetime-value assumption is wrong, when competitors can match the spend anyway, or when public market pressure/quarterly reporting constraints prevent similarly bold moves.
Detail
situation: Google needed non-organic ways to get its search box in front of users beyond google.com, competing against Microsoft's browser-based distribution advantage.
decision: Pay software makers (Adobe, RealNetworks, WinZip), OEMs (Dell), and browsers (Firefox) to bundle Google Toolbar/search, accepting an acquisition cost justified by an ARPU uplift from roughly $2 to $10+ per toolbar user.
outcome: Toolbar-driven distribution compounded with rising ARPU ($10, $20, $30+ over years) to fund ever more aggressive acquisition, eventually culminating in today's multi-billion-dollar Apple Safari default-search payments.
lesson: Recognizing and acting on rising lifetime value early let Google out-compete rivals on user acquisition long before most competitors understood the scale of the opportunity.
In their words
So, how did they pay money to get users to install the Google Toolbar? Because they weren't paying users. The average annual revenue generated by a Google user was $2. But with Toolbar, it was $10 plus dollars, even if you're being conservative.