Source
When this applies
when an incumbent dominant in its core category must decide whether to pioneer or wait-and-see in emerging adjacent categories
The takeaway
An incumbent whose core business is extremely profitable will rationally underinvest in uncertain adjacent categories, but this wait-and-see posture systematically costs far more in catch-up acquisition price than earlier, riskier investment would have.
Why it works
Because the core business is so much more profitable and lower-risk than any adjacent bet, the incumbent rationally waits to see which adjacent category 'wins' before committing capital, but this systematically cedes first-mover advantage and category ownership to smaller, more aggressive entrants, forcing expensive catch-up acquisitions later (sometimes at 5-10x the price it could have paid earlier, e.g. Monster at $11B vs its $70B market cap today).
One level up
The safety of a dominant core business can itself become a strategic liability by making the leader structurally slow to act in adjacent, emerging categories.
Where it stops holding
This stops working when the adjacent category turns out to be a fad that quickly collapses, in which case the wait-and-see approach correctly avoided wasted investment.
Detail
situation: New beverage categories (sports drinks, bottled water, energy drinks) emerged, each pioneered by smaller players (Gatorade/Quaker, Hansen's/Monster).
decision: Coca-Cola generally watched, built smaller homegrown competitors (PowerAid, Dasani) or acquired late/small, rather than pioneering or acquiring category leaders early (declined Monster at $11B market cap in 2012).
outcome: Gatorade remains dominant in sports drinks under Pepsi; Monster's market cap grew to $70B by the time Coke later bought a 20% stake for about $2B (worth ~$12B today) — a good but far smaller win than owning the category leader outright would have been.
lesson: Incumbents in extremely profitable core categories tend to under-invest early in adjacent emerging categories, repeatedly ceding the biggest wins to more aggressive entrants.
In their words
I mean, I think the story of the last 25 years is they sit there in a privileged position and look around and wait and see. And then, when something really starts happening, then they go become active in it.