Source
David Senra — a16z's First Employee on the History of a16z, Venture Capital & Fixing the Government | Scott Kupor (November 4, 2026) ·
at 13:01 ▸ ·
at 15:53 ▸
When this applies
when an early, risky bet either compounds credibility or kills a nascent venture
The takeaway
In a new venture's earliest period, a rapid, visible success — even one that deviates from the stated strategy — can generate momentum that compounds disproportionately to its size.
Why it works
Fast, visible early wins create a news cycle and narrative momentum that lowers the cost of raising subsequent capital/customers, regardless of whether the win was strategically 'on thesis'.
One level up
Momentum begets momentum: the market rewards perceived trajectory as much as substance in the early innings.
Where it stops holding
This stops working when an early bet fails publicly instead of succeeding, which can just as easily destroy nascent credibility — the mechanism is symmetric risk, not guaranteed upside.
Detail
situation: a16z, just after closing its first fund and pitching itself as an early-stage investor, did an unconventional buyout of Skype from eBay alongside Silver Lake, working around an IP dispute with the original founders.
decision: They proceeded despite criticism that a buyout contradicted their stated early-stage strategy, and despite the broader VC industry hunkering down during the financial crisis.
outcome: Sold Skype to Microsoft 18 months later for 4x the purchase price, returning half the fund to LPs; combined with Nasira's quick sale to Cisco, this funded their services build-out and let them raise fund two ahead of schedule while competitors were paralyzed.
lesson: Being willing to act boldly and off-script when others are frozen (here, during a crisis) can generate outsized, narrative-shifting wins — but it is inherently a bet with no guarantee of this outcome.
In their words
And so we were able to actually like raise our second fund well ahead of what we had planned doing in part because the Skype thing just worked out so well. We returned, you know, literally, you know, half our fund to our LPs within eighteen months, which, you know, these days is obviously completely unheard of and even back then was unheard of.